As predicted, Russia cuddling up to Turkey

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
06/08/2009 17:41

Russia cuddling up to Turkey.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8186946.stm

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
06/08/2009 23:50

So to the usual protagonist's are you getting worried now?

AJ

yorgozlu



Joined: 16/06/2009
Posts: 4437

Message Posted:
06/08/2009 23:54

I'm glad I wasnt the only one waiting for one of those to comment AJ.

May be they are too busy searching through the books for an answer.

Maz


Joined: 29/03/2009
Posts: 1924

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 00:38

I went to a talk at the new Peace Research Centre at Near East, and I guessed from the talks (which were in English) by Russians and Turks and TC's that the chances are that the future will be see Turkey and Russia and former Russian States combining numbers, with possibly America, and we will be included and supremacy will be ours - the sheer numerical might against the EU will be a refreshing change from the current continuing oppression and Embargoes! Watch this space - as they say.

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 01:20

Actually,



1/ you were too impatient



2/ you aren't even correct.. . I reminded you of another, earlier deal - mentioned in the very article you quote - last time you told us the TR / RU were "cuddling up".. ;)



that one "upset" the Russians..



>>Turkey, which hopes to become a regional energy hub, signed a rival deal last month with four European Union countries for the construction of a pipeline to bring Central Asian gas to Europe, bypassing Russia.<<



more..



>>The European Union-backed scheme bypasses Russia and is seen as a way of reducing Moscow's ability to turn off the tap, our correspondent says.<<



This is just TR taking advantage of it's geographic position...





re msg 4



MarieB



Well they might THINK that, but do you SERIOUSLY think the US will marginalise the EU over Russia ?!! ;0

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 06:56

MM,

Euro is the biggest rival to $ for world currency. Many countries hold reserves in $ and the petrol prices are charged in $ but the Euro is a very big menacing threat. So US may well try to undermine Europe in some way.

ismet

frontalman



Joined: 28/02/2008
Posts: 499

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 08:33

Turkey is playing a very clever game. They hold a lot of the cards after this gas pipeline deal with the EU. If the EU depends on keeping Turkey sweet for its gas supply then Turkey is in a very strong position re EU membership bid, Cyprus deal, etc. Any cosying up with Russia is to let the EU know that Turkey does have alternative allies. Very smart IMHO.

smoggyjim


Joined: 21/07/2007
Posts: 214

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 09:42

It will be years before the pipeline is even started to be built then they have to get agreements from various countries for the gas, so any holding of cards is a long way off.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 09:48

Thr future for the TRNC is looking positive. Mother will look after us.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 09:52

Trust me Smoggy they (Turkey) hold the cards whether its years away or not,

Paul.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 10:08

I agree with Paul.

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 10:24

Smoggy

Did you read all of the article?

In particular:

'The prime ministers of Turkey and Russia have signed a series of agreements regarding co-operation on major oil and gas projects.'

It is not just about one proposed pipeline.

AJ

proger1



Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 2919

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 10:59

Not disagreeing with you AJ as you may be correct in the assumption that "projects" refers to more than just the pipeline however a pipeline of this length is in itself considered as several "projects" tied into one overall solution.

Only time will tell if there will be additional plans.

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 13:32

Hi proger1



The reason for my assumption is that the proposed pipeline is for gas and the following indicates oil and gas.

'The prime ministers of Turkey and Russia have signed a series of agreements regarding co-operation on major oil and gas projects.'

And it has just been announced that Russia is going be involved in the development of Turkey's Nuclear power development program.

Updated story here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8186946.stm

Regards

AJ

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 13:38

And this part is significant:



'But while Nabucco may reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas, both Mr Putin and the European Commission insist that Nabucco and South Stream are not rivals.

While both projects are still on the drawing board, they suggest Turkey is effectively being wooed by both the Europeans and the Russians, our correspondent adds, and is in the enviable position of being able to say "yes" to both.'

AJ

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 13:42

Mark

Message 5

That message did not make an awful lot of sense to me but I got the gist of it.

I think you need to eat a little bit of humble pie.

AJ

CyprusSage


Joined: 05/08/2009
Posts: 26

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 17:07

AJ,



I think I'd trust the analysis of someone who appears to know more about world geopolitics than an individual who seems to spend his life searching desperately for pro-Turkish press releases. Clue : how many serious, international news agencies have carried this story?



Exactly...

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 17:17

'CyprusSage'

Of course you can believe who you want and I can believe who I want and yes I am 'pro-Turkish/Cypriot Turkish'. I have an opinion the same as you but we will wait and see what happens eh?.

AJ

CyprusSage


Joined: 05/08/2009
Posts: 26

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 17:29

AJ,



Indeed. And while doing so, better to consider informed analysis.

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 17:33

I have and that was prior to the beeb publishing it. It is amazing what 25 years in the oil and gas industry can provide you with intelligence wise.

AJ

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
07/08/2009 21:00

turkey cuddling up to russia iindeed aj:



have a look at the maps on your own link, poor old ukraine seems to lose out all ways

since the north stream project a-building is far out in the northern seas

and the admitedly more iffy south stream and nabucco plans also avoid going through ukraine at all

unlike the existing "very busy" gas pipelines...



perhaps this is more to do with ukraine's threat not to renew the sevastopol naval base treaty in 2017

and will serve as one extra lever against eu-dreaming ukraine

although as one eu-commissar recently put it "there is more chance of new zealand joining than ukraine"



and I'd rate the kiwis' chances ahead of turkey too in the eu fantasy membership stakes



but sell turkey nuclear technology and ship over a load of russian engineers and security specialists?

your "cuddling-up" is beginning to look more like a bear-hug!



not that our american friends are so much better ie., "we had to destroy the villiage in order to save it"

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
08/08/2009 11:58

no comments? I'm disappointed...perhaps I'm just kicking against an open door



because east of moralistic hand-wringing bleeding-heart whited-sepulchre europe

...things are not always "exactly as they seem"



and even inside europe itself maybe, eg turkey's supposed "accession" process

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
10/08/2009 20:32

re msg 6 Ismet



Dollar / USA "games"... I think the last regime tried that technique - deliberately making the greenback cheap ..



USA is always trying to influence things... often resulting in a bloody nose for them and wars where they tried to "help"..



Think Cyprus - for example...



The last administration was TELLING the EU to allow TR entry to the EU !!



AJ, re my msg 5 - YES it was for you ;) re 16.. IF you understood it, and acknowledge the points within the BBC news article - that contradict your assumption - it is surely YOU that has to take a slice of said pie..





Be good ! BTW . had a nice break ..

proger1



Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 2919

Message Posted:
10/08/2009 20:58

Andre,

Having just spent a week with I believe to be a very knowledgable Ukranian Oil and Gas person I believe I am correct in saying that the issues that involve Russia and Ukraine are on a knife edge and neither side trusts each other enough to borrow a butane lighter at the moment.

And this is where I am open to attack from all directions but as much as turkey is independant it is in the middle of a huge mixing bowl of power hungry nations and has the opurtunity to get the best deals possible. Russia need to exort to make money and they need the best deal possible between greedy Europeans, over abundant middle eastern countris and corrupt FSU countries, Turkey doesn't look like a bad option to me

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
10/08/2009 23:36

proger1

You have got it in one!

AJ

proger1



Joined: 18/04/2009
Posts: 2919

Message Posted:
10/08/2009 23:41

As you say AJ, a little background knowledge of the oil industry is helpful when trying to work out these situations, it has nothing to do with geopolitical situations.

Oil and gas should be a cryptic description of max profit, still in it and still trying to stay on top, struggling badly but then I always have !!!

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
11/08/2009 09:12

paul message 24:



yes turkey is ideally placed, whatever europe may decide

didn't mean it to come out that way but these huge issues render cyprus irrelevant

though obviously not for the people living there or with ties



back to the matter in hand:

any relationship between turkey and russia may not exactly be one of equals,

when the large foreign power waded in to help the embattled loyalist minority in the north,

(sounds familiar?) journalists said turkey was warned not to to get involved over abkhazia...

perhaps now is the time for a payoff, however modest



effectively changed borders in cyprus and georgia, worries over gas,

america pulling out of iraq and britain stuck with afganistan for a forty-year



while trembling newly virginal europe,

an enthusiastic but amateur young bride frets over whom to admit to her bedchamber

and what the results of tampering with her demographic balance might be:



welcome to the middle east/welcome to the real world of geopolitics