Will the other nations still back Southern Cyprus

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 12:37

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWULvFfhYqk



In particular France and Gemany.I think Turkey really mean business,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 12:52

using cyprus/nicosia's eu presidency as a pretext for taking the reunification

"talks" to the vet's to be put to sleep, is a sound political stance



after all, somebody has to blink sooner or later although who really blinked

on this one will always be in dispute once blame-gaming really gets into gear

Troodo


Joined: 12/06/2008
Posts: 1002

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 13:08

A blundered interpretation of a UN directive caused most of this problem in the first place. Turkey is right, by strict international law, the roc is illegal.

mikelapta



Joined: 20/11/2008
Posts: 2186

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 13:22

All things point to a solution in 2011.

Well done,Turkey for getting your country straight.



Will it be ROC declaring itself a separate country



or Turkey declaring TRNC as a separate country



Surely they can read how it has happened in Sudan.



Separate countries.....Muslim North,Christian South



Just like here !!!!



Mike

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 14:18

Just gazed into my crystal ball,and this is what i saw.In the referendum at the early part of next year.The Tcs will vote yes for re-unification.The Gcs will vote no,and Northern Cyprus will be no more as it will become Turkey,



Gypsy Rosie Lee.

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 19:09

Why would the Greek Cypriots vote no,



Grey.

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 19:26

Is it because they can,



Grey.

Brinsley


Joined: 04/04/2009
Posts: 6858

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 19:38

Why is it that news broadcasters always say that TRNC is only recognised by Turkey? This is not true! One of the ex-satellite State's of the USSR declared recognition as did a small Country in Asia, both names escape me, sorry.



Richard

CJtill


Joined: 02/05/2008
Posts: 836

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 19:40

Strange, but I also have a crystal ball which I purchased from Woolworths back in 64, and its never let me down yet.

I see a glimpse of a newspaper, and the headlines are England win the World cup for the first time in over 100 years, and below that are a few paragraphs saying that the Cyprus talks are ongoing, and a solution will be reached fairly soon.

Mystic Michael

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 23:05

before anyone gets a chance to vote on anything,

there will have to be a "draft agreement" of sorts



I wonder what cyprus 44 members would think it

may include ie what would be the deal on offer?



...this is not a rhetorical question!

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
14/07/2011 23:23

Andre,



Would that be a draft agreement,or a daft agreement,



Grey.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 01:12

it would be a draft agreement:

I didn't want to prejudge, but am interested to see

what substance there might be to a possible deal,

since there is always hugely more talk about a vote

...than what it is the cypriots might be voting about

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 18:26

I assume the vote would be re-unification yes or no,



Grey.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 19:59

greylag message 13:



if there were to be another serious reunification proposal,

it would be best to keep to the yes/no voting choice,

otherwise any result would open to interpretation I suppose



in theory, most cypriots and many on this forum

are in favour of reunification, of some type or another

and personally, I feel that it would enhance property values



cypriots would tend to see a good reunification proposal in

terms of the security guarantee and two autonomous zones

(north)



or as a return to former homes, with majority government

(south mainly)



I hope I do no-one an injustice by saying that compromise

in tackling the above could not be carried in 2004 ...while

blending the"parameters" is harder than seven years ago



but as an intellectual pursuit, no harm in considering the

eu exercise, deals on trade, referenda, and what have you

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 20:20

I notice that Turkey are in the thros of offering to open ports again.In return for direct flights and the lifting of embargoes.This would be massive for both North and South if it happened,



Grey.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 21:26

...if it happened

greylag


Joined: 08/04/2009
Posts: 1110

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 21:52

You dont think it will Andre,i take it,



Grey.

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 22:14

Paul, message 5. When you look into your crystal ball can you see direct flights?

BeeKeeper


Joined: 29/09/2009
Posts: 137

Message Posted:
15/07/2011 22:56

Someone wise once said



"No-one ever lost money betting against a resolution of the Cyprus problem".

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 01:52

I remain optimistic,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 10:37

it all depends what you mean by optimism paul



if you are saying you are optimistic about the chances of an agreed settlement,

there is precious little evidence for that, either in cyprus modern history, in the same

old impasse in the current talks, or in the traumatic rejection of the 2004 proposals



perhaps you believe the nations will tire of the greek cypriots and give turkey a pat on

the back, lift the covert ban on eu membership, normalise relations with the north etc

...although all official statements suggest otherwise



or can it be that people are simply clutching at (jack) straws in the wind?



on the other hand, there are grounds for hope

turkey is powerful and emergent in stark contrast with an eu mired in the euro crisis

and should be able to protect the trnc from a gc attack for ever



and one day, yes, the outside world will have to allow the isolations to ease up:

just as soon as they see how pointless they really are



...that is my optimism

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 14:58

Hi Andre,



I am optimistic that,there will be some sort of settlement before the Greek Cypriots take on the "floating presidency" in July 2012.Will that settlement be re-unification,i dont know.Will that settlement be Northern Cyprus enveloped by Turkey,i dont know.What i do think though is that one way or another there will be a decision made,either the end of this year,or early next,as to which way matters are to proceed.Just call me a very optimistic soul Andre,



Paul.

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 15:00

Bill,



Re mess 18,yes i can my friend,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 16:14

newlad 22:



the bitter history of cyprus "settlements" suggests that even if a compromise formula could

be agreed at this late stage, there are few grounds for confidence it would last out a season



I know several tc's who are strongly in favour of a settlement based on the old order pre'74

...whether they are right or wrong (whatever that means!) they are under no illusions at all:

such a settlement means central rule by nicosia, and both see no harm in that



and you have to accept their sincerity and their well-argued reasons for their views...



but a gimcrack deal cobbled up for the unwilling that seems fair to ex-pats, gc claimants, tc's

uncle tom cobley and all?

a fine idea in principle but very much the stuff that dreams are made of, to quote the poet



and a total takeover by turkey would face howls of anguish worldwide and in the eu/un too

...and why buy the cow when you get the milk for free?

mikelapta



Joined: 20/11/2008
Posts: 2186

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 16:20

Next week includes the "Peace and Freedom Day".We have the Peace,matbe the Turkish President will mention Turkey's intentions on his visit here !!! Inshallah

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 19:02

newlad 22:



a pretty surreal thought to have a gc "cyprus" preside over the eu



I wonder what more they could actually do in terms of "tails wagging dogs"?

...probably there will be a hue and cry over turkey not opening its ports, (again)

and perhaps a number of worthy statements about cyprus to general applause,

but short of a military campaign few could mount even if they really needed to

it's going to be steady as she goes for the likes of us



I can only think of winston churchills "do your worst...and we will do our best"



meanwhile do remember that european banks are unfortunate creditors to dodgy

PIIG loans far in excess of 200 billion pounds



...and the so-called cyprob seems to almost slide off the list of today's runners

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 20:14

Andre re-mess 26,



I thought all E.U. member states held the floating presidency for six months,or am i mistaken.What Turkey are saying is,they want re-unification to coincide with this.If it doesnt happen then they will freeze ties with the E.U.Or are these just idle threats,i think not,



Paul.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
16/07/2011 22:43

the eu is in two minds about turkey



ome the one hand they are very happy a big anatolian sheep dog guards europe's east gate

plus it is one of the few bigger states still expanding



yet under no circumstances will a moslem state of 80 millions ever be admitted to membership

..I hope I am wrong about this but...



and unification cannot as you suggest just happen, there would have to be a draft agreement

on the table first



the most likely outcome?



no deal on cyprus, no turkish membersip, a europe in increasing financial turmoil, but at the back

of their minds a hope turkey will not be too upset and go AWOL



and paul, apart from gc claimants, who gives a monkeys about reunification as you call it

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
18/07/2011 17:07

I would imagine Britain and the U.S.A. would be very interested,Andre,



Paul.

deputydawg


Joined: 30/03/2010
Posts: 1727

Message Posted:
18/07/2011 19:48

What value is a yes/no referendum unless the full implications are made public before the event? This muppet, many years ago, made a yes vote, along with millions of others, to play a part in what was described as no more than a trading agreement, "The Common Market". At that time governments came and went but, other than on budget day, no particular party could make meaningful changes to my life and Britishness. Since, of course, the Common Market has grown into the monster it is today, the EU, and it has all but destroyed the UK as I knew it. Any referendum here in the TRNC is the concern of those entitled to vote only, so I restrict my comment to those potential voters to "be very careful of what any agreement may lead to".

rocking


Joined: 05/11/2008
Posts: 421

Message Posted:
18/07/2011 19:59

Well said message 30 - I too voted yes to the Common Market, but never voted to become a member of the European Union (did not have a chance to vote). With the financial news today I thank God that UK has stuck to the £ although with what is happening in rest of Europe that will be in trouble. I remember the last referendum here, the day before the Church in the South came out and asked people to vote NO probably do the same this time round. I certainly will vote NO as I did last time, and look at what the EU promised the people of the TRNC to a yes vote, which they did, absolutely nothing

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
18/07/2011 20:08

Good points DD and rocking,



Paul.

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 08:11

Its OK for English people like me to comment, but my main worry is the survival of the Turkish Cypriot people in Cyprus. Already there are more TCs in London than in Cyprus, and they must be in danger of being outnumbered by mainland Turks in the TRNC.

Of course no state will stay mono-ethnic these days and South Cyprus now has a sizeable Russian and British population as well as Pontian Greek's and Greek mainlanders, although the GC are still in the majority.



The present impasse cannot continue, I hope a federal settlement for Cyprus can be agreed on a BiZonal BiCommunal basis, as envisaged in the High Level agreements form 1977 onwards, However if that cannot be agreed in the next few months, then lets at least have a 'Taiwan solution' for the TRNC and end the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots.