If talks fail and NC becomes independant would it be an EU member?

diane62


Joined: 18/04/2008
Posts: 74

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 15:20

Not 100% sure but understand TRNC , EU membership is currently suspended due to division , obviously should settlement be reached membership with south would be joint. However if talks fail, what happens to EU membership should independant state be recognised eventually would EU membership suspension be lifted or does if dissapear with talks failure.

Apologies if this point has been mentioned before but hav'nt seen this topic on Cyp44 recently.

many thanks

D

0maintenance


Joined: 22/09/2010
Posts: 2179

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 15:23

I hope it does become a EU member but keeps the TL and is independant from the south.

EricCrapton



Joined: 30/12/2010
Posts: 325

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 15:26

There is more chance of the Pope becoming a Muslim than reunification in my opinion.

cyprusairsoft



Joined: 22/06/2009
Posts: 2066

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 15:28

i agree with above post its all hot air

diane62


Joined: 18/04/2008
Posts: 74

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 16:48

most think a solution is unlikely , but what happens to EU status after failure is acknowledged, suspended at present

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 16:51

Just to be clear as far as the EU is concerned all of cyprus joined the EU. It is not 'membership' that is suspended in the north but EU Aquis, which is EU Law. All of cyprus is in the EU, EU law is suspended in the North.

diane62


Joined: 18/04/2008
Posts: 74

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 16:53

Thanks Erolz , understand a bit better now, but whats the scenario after talks end.

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 16:58

After the talks end, nothing changes automaticaly. The RoC government will still be recongised by the world other than Turkey as the sole legitimate government of all of Cyprus. The TRNC / Turkey will still have de facto control of the North. The EU will still consider all of CYprus to be in the EU but EU law is suspended in the North. THat was the staus quo before the current UN sponsered talks and if they fail it will be the status quo after.

The question is will another failure to reach an agreed settlement in turn result in a changing of that status quo. Thats a question for those with crystal balls I thinks and mine are not.

0maintenance


Joined: 22/09/2010
Posts: 2179

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 17:05

We dont want reunification,2 seperate states,the north can become EU and we can keep the TL



Perfect.



Turkey can come here and set up lots of Manufacturing companies and sell there goods into the EU community and make north cyprus a great Manufacturing/producing/trading island again,hurry up home Asil,its going to be starting without the man from del monte

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 17:07

I am not sure who you mean when you say 'we' 0maintenace ? Do you mean you and David perhaps ?



Turkey already has a customs union with the EU btw, and is able to sell and buy to and from it on the same terms as EU member states pretty much.

0maintenance


Joined: 22/09/2010
Posts: 2179

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 17:11

Sorry. i meant me and David.



Dont want the Euro either.

waddo


Joined: 29/11/2008
Posts: 1966

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 17:15

Cyprus is in the EU but the EU Laws are suspended for the North - is that because no country, Turkey apart, recognises the North or because Cyprus should not have been allowed in until the peace talks reached a result?



The current round of free meals, International travel photo opportunities or as the UN and the World know them - Peace Talks - will end mid next year - aledgedley! If a united Cyprus is not achieved then everything stays the same and more free meals will be eaten. If talks fail and the UN have had enough and pull out - pick which side you really want to belong on. If the talks fail and Turkey say's they have had enough and make Cyprus (North) a permanent part of Mersin 10 then the fun will start. First off, if the World, because the UN will be the first to recognise the TRNC or it will not have a reason to leave, recognises the TRNC or even the North as part of Turkey - will it (North Cyprus) still be in the EU or will the South have to leave and apply again?

diane62


Joined: 18/04/2008
Posts: 74

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 17:17

thanks, interesting year ahead.

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:04

Waddo what should have happened and what actualy happened are sadly not the same thing. In my view an all GC RoC government should never have been recognised as the sole legitimate government of all of cyprus, which started with the 1964 UN resolution on cyprus, but that is what happened. I also think the EU should not have allowed a divided Cyprus to join the EU, but it happend none the less.

The reason why EU law is suspended in the North, according to the EU (protocal 10 of RoC accession) is princpaly due to the RoC not having effective (de facto) control of the north, and without such a suspesnion the RoC would be liable for failure to implement EU regulations there after accession. In short the EU had to do that or else by its own laws it would have to continualy fine the RoC for not implementing EU regulations in the North.

EricCrapton



Joined: 30/12/2010
Posts: 325

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:11

'In short the EU had to do that or else by its own laws it would have to continualy fine the RoC for not implementing EU regulations in the North.'



Very interesting. So why does the EU not fine GC for breaking EU legislation since day one of the GC joining the EU?

jay76


Joined: 17/07/2008
Posts: 532

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:21

In ten years time the situation will be the same, as long as people at the top are still being paid (in there life time) there happy as larry.

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:23

I believed the EU has fined the RoC on a number of issues for breaches in the areas that are under its control and has threatened to do so on a number of other issues.



http://www.lawcyprus.org/tag/eu-carbon-emission-sanction/

http://www.cyprusedirectory.com/cyprusguide/cyprus.aspx?ID=15014

MUSIN M


Joined: 26/06/2008
Posts: 1352

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:25

and how many muslim countries do you see in the eu ,come on let,s not kid ourselves .



it won,t happen and we all know it .







musin



long live the kktc

hodgeliz


Joined: 16/10/2010
Posts: 278

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:44

Read the breaking news on http://www.glencoecyprus.com website really exciting stuff from Erdogan !

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
19/07/2011 19:52

Musim, most probably Kosovo will be the first, even though 5 of current 27 members dont recognise it as an indepednat state. Personaly I do not believe the whole christian club / clash of cultures argument that Turkey would never gain EU entry. It may play well on occsion to various domestic audiences, but my belief is that Turkish entry will ultimately come down to economics and money. It may not be too long before the EU can not afford not to add new members of significant populations size AND population growth whatevwer their religion that also have economic growth rates over the low EU norms (when they have any growth that is). Of course by then those prospective members may not wish for entry any longer. Either way it will come down to money in my view not religion.

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 10:54

Re msg 18 Musim



>>and how many muslim countries do you see in the eu ,come on let,s not kid ourselves .

it won,t happen and we all know it . <<



Bosnia and Herzegovina ??? Want to place a wager ?





I ultimately foresee a united Cyprus - in a new format - bi-zonal federated - and Turkey in the EU and freedom of movement for all Turks, Cypriots and Greeks - with some temporary abrogations re freedom of movement for ( say) a generation..

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 10:59

Re: Msg 18-21,



Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Albania.

mmmmmm



Joined: 19/12/2008
Posts: 8398

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 11:10

Hi Clarissa



you are quite right, but I think Bosnia & Herzegovina is in pole position to lighten Musim's wallet ;)

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 11:17

Re : Msg 23,



Correct, mx6.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 11:24

msgs. 21, 23



any small muslim state is welcome to apply:

and that's why the french parliament tried to get new members capped at 5% of the eu population

...but 80 millions? on that the jury is not just out, it's gone home and is watching "east enders"



and er, would any southern candidate be invited to sign up to a failing euro?



mark, you penultimately foresaw turkey offering to withdraw its troops in the 2004 proposals,

but your gc mates didn't agree to the bizonal package and missed the boat, or so we are told

mikelapta



Joined: 20/11/2008
Posts: 2186

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 11:42

Maybe 5 years ago,my TC neighbour,Headmaster of a school,and I were discussing politics.



I remember him saying:Northern Cyprus will become a separate country,join the EU.



A few years down the line,when Turkey applies seriously,they can say "look how well the Muslim



country of Northern Cyprus has been a good member"...let Turkey join now.



He was also right when we talked a few months ago."Turkey is waiting for the right time to tell Greece..enough is enough",,,,that time is NOW

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 11:48

mikelapta,



your headmaster foresaw north cyprus joining the eu?



tell mark all that: it will be bouzouki music to his ears

mikelapta



Joined: 20/11/2008
Posts: 2186

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 11:51

There is no way ROC can have the Presidency of EU in the present situation.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 12:03

mikelata,



who says "no way", you and me?



(with respect)

mikelapta



Joined: 20/11/2008
Posts: 2186

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 12:18

"no way" in the present climate !!!



Does ROC want the Presidency of EU ?It cheated it's way in



If Turkey vetoes,what next?



It is buying electrity from a country it does not recognise !!!



It's supporting motherland "Greece" is virtually bankrupt,and Germany is starting to panic !!!



It is now getting the treatment it deserves !!!!



Do I feel sorry for ROC.....Nah !!!!!!

Perry


Joined: 27/01/2007
Posts: 413

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 12:39

Mike



'Virtually' Bankrupt ??!!!!



It is absolutely bankrupt - completely f*****d !

mikelapta



Joined: 20/11/2008
Posts: 2186

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 12:58

Greece is committing Hari Kari.....a long slow painful death.



I await the EU official announcement of it's bankruptcy.



and Ms.Merkel of Germany's comments

Stonehousepub


Joined: 21/05/2009
Posts: 755

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 14:32

There will be no settlement..



Erdogan has today made it very clear that negotiations will cease at the end of this year and that Turkey will no longer be persuing a solution to the Cyprus problem. He has also stated that Turkey is not the only guarantor and that Greece and Great Britain will be doing the running around as from the end of this year.



In his own words "bicak kemige dayandi" meaning "the knife is now touching the bone"



In my opinion we are looking at the TRNC becoming an official state of Turkey very very soon...

Stonehousepub


Joined: 21/05/2009
Posts: 755

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 15:02

There will be no settlement..



Erdogan has today made it very clear that negotiations will cease at the end of this year and that Turkey will no longer be persuing a solution to the Cyprus problem. He has also stated that Turkey is not the only guarantor and that Greece and Great Britain will be doing the running around as from the end of this year.



In his own words "bicak kemige dayandi" meaning "the knife is now touching the bone"



In my opinion we are looking at the TRNC becoming an official state of Turkey very very soon...

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 15:13

Re: Msg 33,

If they want to declare TRNC an official state/province of Turkey, don't you think that they should ask TCs' opinion first in some kind of referendum?

Otherwise it will be an annexation and the international community might take a dim view of the matter.

Stonehousepub


Joined: 21/05/2009
Posts: 755

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 15:54

msg 35



The TC's opinion has no importance.



The 2004 referandom was a prime example of how much the TC's vote/opinion was valued.



I did not see any members of the international community taking a dim view on the broken promises that were made to the TC's back then.



The ROC was awarded with EU membership for voting NO to the Annan plan and the TC's were awarded with more embargoes and continued isolation for voting YES to the Annan plan.



After spending most of my morning listening to Erdogan, I can quite confidently say that reunification is not going to happen, Eu membership is not going to happen and negotiations will come to an end this year.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 16:52

clarissa2,



you make what appears to be a very valid moral point,

but in terms of international law, as far as it is relevant to north cyprus

it seems that any such vote by the ethnic turks of north cyprus

...would itself not be recognised



and then there is the question of "who is a cypriot"?



we have a large but uncertain number of migrants from turkey,

and while some say they should not help decide on such an issue

many are well-established, they made lives here, even had kids,

and may well become citizens soon

and according to international best practice they also deserve a say



finally, I'm sure the "international community" will take a dim view

of anything at all concerning turkish cyprus, for what that is worth:

just as powerful eu nations like france take a dim view of turkey joining



...which is why the paris parliament tried to limit any new eu members

to a maximum *5% of the eu population



(*any comments on this from mark 6xm are still awaited wit

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
20/07/2011 16:57

with interest)



...and apologies in advance for going on a bit,

especially since the outcome of the supposed reunification talks

did seem pretty much pre-ordained given a "no" vote in 2004