If the talks finish ?

philbailey


Joined: 17/01/2011
Posts: 3534

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 15:23

Will all the eu aid etc

and the health care for T/Cs in the south be stopped

will the refuse to give eu passports etc to T/Cs

and will they clamp down on ex-pats

who own property on G/Cs land

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:01

No, no, no, which expats ?, same as who owns them now.

philbailey


Joined: 17/01/2011
Posts: 3534

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:13

Just thinking they may try

"tit for tat"

and they seem to hold the cards

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:18

philbailey the biggest card they hold and have held since 1964 is their recongintion as the sole legitimate government of all of cyprus and all cypriots, despite the clear contradtions in an all GC run government vs the consitution. That is why they offer health care and passports and ID cards to the TC in the north. They can not claim this legitimacy without showing willingness to 'proivde' as a government to all cypriots and they know this. It is doubtful that they will do anything that undermines this legitimacy they have as recognised government of all of cyprus and all cypriots by doing the things you suggest. It would be massively self defeating for them and they know it.

philbailey


Joined: 17/01/2011
Posts: 3534

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:24

But if Turkey flexs it muscle

will the South do the same ?



withdraw health care , passports , aid ,

letting T/Cs work there

stop them being allowed to live there etc



and if so



will it affect the economy?



I do not know how many go across for work



1000 or more ?

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:30

philbailey any move like the one you suggest would be a move towards permanent parition of the island. It is possible that the RoC would move towards a solution based on permanent division, but it is extermely doubtful they will at this time as a result of failure of this current round of talks. It would mean a total reversal of their policy for as long as there has been an independant cypriot state and before that even.



The damage to the TRNC of such moves economicaly would be minimal compared to the money Turkey pays to the TRNC. The damage of such moves to the RoC politicaly and their ability to continue to claim to be the sole legitimate government of all of cyprus and all cypriots would be immense and possibly fatal. That is why I think it is an unlikely senario.

philbailey


Joined: 17/01/2011
Posts: 3534

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:34

Thank you ,



but I think they will go for properties more

if talks fail

hence the G Robb trail

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:34

Turkey currently HAS muscles, economicaly, politicaly and militarily. The RoC just does not have the same muscles at all. What it has are in the decline, membership of the EU that is suffering it worst economic crisis in its entire history, friendship and support of Greece, a country on the verge of default. The only muscle it has that is not current dimished or dimishing is its recognition as the sole legitimate government of all of cyprus and all cypriots, and you think it should undermine this muscle by claiming to represent all cypriots whilst denying some basic provision of such a government ?

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:39

Philbailey 'going for properties more' is very different from denying TC the ability to use RoC health care, or getting RoC ID's or to work in the RoC.



I personally think the decision to go for Gary Robb was one of expiedency. He was 'gettable' by nature of where he was. Other tragets were not and are not. If the decision to do so was influenced by anything other than this I would suggest the immient review and changes to the whole EU arrest warrant and entradition process is as likely an explaination as the state of the current round of talks.



If the RoC were to 'go for' property more than currently in the case of EU citizens who 'merely' bought property on disputed land there are many difficulties for them legally and politicaly that just do not apply to the Gary Robb senario.

philbailey


Joined: 17/01/2011
Posts: 3534

Message Posted:
23/07/2011 16:48

It could be a test case

whether he sold or built the properties

it still could be a major notch in the belt



after the orams got screwed they set up the IPC



if the "talks" fail will G/Cs use the possible outcome?

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 00:45

message 10 philbailey:



what is your understanding of "fail"?

the talks are probably a final attempt at re-unification of cyprus

...if that is your bag, you are likely to be disappointed



yes, the gary robb case will have some value as a precedent,

but do remember, expats were shaking in their shoes over

orams' although apart from distressing the two pensioners,

it has proved a damp squib



I guess the orams and robb cases are mostly to do with greek

cypriot claimants' need to feel they really do own properties of

which they are unlikely to ever be in actual posession



but the greek cypriots can always be relied upon to do what

they can, short of a war they would lose, to grab north cyprus



if you want to know about the IPC I believe it goes way back,

but do ask mark 6xm, he's our specialist on gc property stories

Lilli



Joined: 21/07/2008
Posts: 13081

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 01:31

Phil we really do not know the answer, i for one would like to see mr robb hung drawn and quatered, off topic if you want to know how i am please email me details on here, im ok but waiting this week for the one im dreading xxxxxx

waddo


Joined: 29/11/2008
Posts: 1966

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 07:02

Still trying to figure it all out - not enough years left to live! All Cyprus in the EU - NOW! Talks end today with no result - no change. Talks end today, with result of two separate country's the outcome - both still in the EU? - still the same Island, so if one has to be put out of the EU will the other have to be put out as well and then re-apply?



For UK read TRNC - If UK opted out of the EU today would all EU/UK passport holders have to give their passports back? UK now out of EU, EU/UK passport holders would need new passports - could they return to UK on existing passports? Could they still have EU jobs in EU country's? Would their UK driving licenses still be OK in the EU? If they owned property in EU could it be taken away from them? If they rented in UK from previously EU owners could they stop paying? How would the EU take them to court when the UK was no longer a member?



Is there really a difference? Nothing has happened yet!!!

erolz


Joined: 17/11/2008
Posts: 3456

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 11:19

philbailey msg 10 said



"after the orams got screwed they set up the IPC"



It is not the case that the IPC was set up as a result of the Orams case. The IPC was set up as a result of cases taken to the ECHR which pred date the Orams case by many many years. THe IPC's final ratification as a valid local remedy by the ECHR post dates the Orams case but its inception pre dates it. It is still untested to what degree if any the exisitance of the IPC would affect any future such case like the Orams, bought in the RoC as a civil action for trepass.

Troodo


Joined: 12/06/2008
Posts: 1002

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 11:49

Panic! Abandon ship! You first Pike.

blade


Joined: 19/06/2010
Posts: 1286

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 14:18

Troodo, it may well come to that.

Something people do usually as its sinking, won't be long now.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
24/07/2011 19:18

erolz postings,



these are well-informed and extremely unbiased...could probably teach us all a lesson



I have always thought that expensive high-profile cases like the orams or gary robb

were by general agreement out to make a point rather than apply to the minnows



the fact that some who use cyprus 44 choose to puff either the talks or these cases

is more likely to be related to their agendas rather than the run-of-the-mill reader's