Is American Power in Decline?

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 15:33

The rise of China and America's crisis have led many to predict the decline of the global superpower.



Already in 2008 the US National Intelligence Council in its report on the global trends predicted that the role of the US will change from "continued dominance" to "one among many global actors".

The rise of China and India mean that America will soon lose its position as the world's biggest economy.

The US is leaving beyond its means and can't devise a solution. As the dollar loses its status as the global reserve currency, the Us economic dominance will crumble.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq didn't bring the desired political dominance, but instead compromised America's moral authority and distracted from the real threat - the rise of China.



So is this the end of American world dominance? What say you?

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 15:44

Unlike Europe, China refuses to be intimidated by Washington, a primary reason for the growing fear of China on the part of US planners. Much of Iran's oil already goes to China, and China is providing Iran with weapons, presumably considered a deterrent to US threats.





Simply, the answer to your question is yes.

Bowman


Joined: 02/05/2007
Posts: 256

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 15:48

Who cares?

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 15:50

msge 1



clarissa2



All is not lost but I would expect America to lose its power. Lets just hope it accepts its lower status peacefully and does not pull China in to a conflict. I am optimistic that this wont happen.



China has big problems though, which is mostly age related. I think India could become the top dog if it can move beyond its caste system. There are now more indian billionaires living in Switzerland than any other country. It has 1.5 trillion dollars residing in Swiss banks, Russia is second at 470bn and Britain is third with 390bn.



The beautiful and brilliant American/Zambian writer Dambiso Moyo wrote that America (and europe) has lost the edge on three fronts:



1) America has misalocated its capital. It cant compete in buying assets

2) It has not developed the aptitude of its labour force. Asians will put in far more hours of study

3) America loses out in productivity but it may be losing its innovative and technological edge. More patents are coming

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 15:51

Some people are suggesting that perhaps Cuba and Venezuela might unite, leading to a step towards further integration of Latin America in a ‘bloc’ that is more independent from the United States.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 15:51

from asia, in particular south korea

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:08

ps The US has been slowed down by democracy. It can take a long time to make decision and it will have allocated vast sums of money on welfare, equality and political correctness projects.



China has not yet faced the above problems and it will have to at some point in the future. I think it will have evolve to become a democracy. People will demand this as peoples wealth increases and issues such as equality etc will creep in. This will slow China down as it will with any emerging country.



Saying that China has built great big malls and some of them are empty. They havent yet created a strong and robust internal market, so China is still a long way from America at the moment.



In any case, I would expect countries to converge. They have to. There is no other way if we are going to solve climate change etc.

Turbo


Joined: 24/12/2006
Posts: 833

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:34

Long live the USA, still the big boy. The power is there, they just don't flaunt it like other nations, maybe some financial issues right now but which nation isn't going through a recession right now?

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:36

 

The significant prospect that Europe and Asia may move towards a greater independence has seriously troubled th US and concerns have significantly increased due to the growing EU engagement with China. Of course In the background is the matter of Israeli nuclear weapons, a topic that Washington bars from international consideration.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:43

msge 9



Bill we could tie your message 5 and 9 together. Obama has been spending a lot of time in latin america. I would not be surprised if we saw an all american block which includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the US, Canada and Mexico.



If this happens then Britain can definitely say goodbye to the Falklands Islands. Obama already refers to them as the Malvinas

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:44

ps this would help the US to muscle China out of Latin america

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:45

Spot on Mark! That's exactly what I see happening.

Turbo


Joined: 24/12/2006
Posts: 833

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:46

Word is out in USA not to buy Chinese, a lot of people are now looking at American brands first. Except cars of course.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:52

msge 12



Bill, this would make this group the most powerful in the world with lots of resources.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 16:54

msge 13



Turbo, apparently this is happening in the UK too. People are looking out for British goods. Not easy to find mind you

No1Doyen


Joined: 04/07/2008
Posts: 16617

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 17:00

Yes Mark. A powerful group indeed.

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 18:26

msge 1



clarissa2



I was thinking, is the biggest issue (battle) likely to be between the US and China.



I think not. I believe the next twenty years is going to be the war between the rich and poor. The top 1% who have got the richest, who own the most assets, are going to come under increasing pressure to give up their riches. Many people will come to the realisation, like Bill Gates and Ted Turner that their wealth was created because of society, not just through their own energy. Bill Gates has probably recognised that his school was one of only a few in the US who had a computer. By the time he left middle school he already had a equivalent of a degree in computers and he was way ahead of the field, and the market was ripe for him to make a killing. Born 10 years earlier or ten years later he would not have made the money he has.

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 19:50

Re: Msg 7,



Douglas,



Have to agree here with you: the rumours of America's death have been greatly exaggerated.



China is yet to overcome huge social, political and demographic problems.

And then even if China surpasses America in terms of GDP, it will still be much poorer country in terms of per capita income.

So it won't be replacing America as the global superpower any time soon.

DutchCrusader



Joined: 19/05/2008
Posts: 11281

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 19:55

@ msg 15, ilovecyprus: (...) apparently this is happening in the UK too. People are looking out for British goods. Not easy to find mind you (...)



▶ Signs of the worst scenario possible: isolationism. I said it in another thread: back to the darkest days in the 20th century. Type ' isolationism ' in Google and realise where we're heading. Frightening.

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 20:01

Re: Msg 19,



DC, as I wrote before, we are also heading for a global depression.



Even more frightening! :( :(

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 20:13

msge 19



DC



People are firstly still making decisions based on cost and quality, but if everything is equal they are looking for British goods. Supposedly, some shops in London are pushing their British goods to the front of the store.

DutchCrusader



Joined: 19/05/2008
Posts: 11281

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 20:14

@ msg 20, Clarissa2: You are right. And so was Nietzsche (free after him): Nothing new in this world. The only thing history teaches us that no one wants to learn from history.



P.S. There's good news also. On the white walls of my villa I've painted in white paint (only I know where to look): "At my age it will last my time..."

rowlo



Joined: 12/10/2008
Posts: 4796

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 21:22

ah here we go again , from the words of an old japanese admiral after bombing pearl harbour , i fear we have awoken a sleeping giant , booooooooooom , 2 cities wiped of the planet , end of war, china dont have the knowledge or know how to take on usa , they have millions of troops sure , but conventional wars are a thing of the past , the weapons they have are no better than ww2 relics and they know it , usa will wipe them of the planet in the course of a few phone calls telling a few people to push the buttons , kinda like a computer game really , only down side could be the sea levels will rise .

Turbo


Joined: 24/12/2006
Posts: 833

Message Posted:
15/11/2011 21:33

message 23,, I agree.