Does anyone really want reunification? Cyprus Mail Nov 30, 2008

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 20:01

ANYONE not familiar with the long history of grandstanding and political bluster associated with the Cyprus problem would have thought that the events of the last week have put paid to any hope that the two leaders would ever reach an agreement.



First there was the incident of the Turkish warship preventing two ships carrying out hydrocarbon explorations in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, by threatening to use force. This was followed on Tuesday by Mehmet Ali Talat’s angry tirade during the talks against President Christofias’ visit to Moscow and the signing of several agreements with the Russian government. An agitated Christofias subsequently declared Talat had no right to challenge the sovereignty of the Republic, while on Wednesday, in his speech at an official dinner in Athens he launched a vicious attack on the Turkish Cypriot leader.



For people familiar with the Cyprus problem, these events were nothing unusual, just another theatrical performance by the main players who

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 20:02

accustomed to entertaining their respective audiences with aggressive rhetoric. This, it could be said, was as much part of the talks as the photographs of the smiling leaders shaking hands. As for Turkey, the bullying tactics in the seas were nothing new – she has been constantly bickering with Greece about exploration rights, but this had not affected the fast improving relations between the two countries. It was how things were done in this part of the world, the more cynical would argue.



But this attitude, cultivated over the decades, might be distorting our view of reality, preventing us from seeing things as they are. And despite the optimism about the procedure voiced by the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy, Alexander Downer, in an interview last weekend, the signs are not good. After two-and-a-half months of talks, little has been agreed at the negotiating table, even though it is said the outstanding differences would be sorted when the procedure enters the give-and-tak

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 20:02

stage. But by the time we arrive at the give-and-take stage, the political climate, which has been steadily deteriorating after the initial honeymoon period, could be so bad that nobody would want a settlement.



Talat and Christofias must shoulder most of the responsibility for the current situation, as they have been publicly bickering and exchanging accusations ever since the start of the direct talks. They might smile for the photographers before they enter the negotiating room, but once they leave they commence the verbal assaults on each other, giving ammunition to the hardliners on both sides to poison the atmosphere and rekindle the old feelings of mistrust and hostility. Does either of them sincerely believe that this is the best way to prepare people for re-unification and power-sharing?



In mitigation, it is often said that both leaders have to take tough stances in public in order to keep the hardliners of their respective communities on side. This is not a credible argu

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 20:04

as it would be rank stupidity to turn the majority of the population against a compromise deal in order to keep the hardliners happy. A more plausible explanation would be that the tough rhetoric is directed to the majorities on both sides, neither of which is particularly keen on reunification and power-sharing.



And judging by the way they have been behaving, neither are Talat and Christofias, both of whom obdurately refuse to engage in the discourse of reconciliation and co-operation. When the two comrades, who supposedly have chemistry and are committed to a settlement, are constantly bickering and incapable of showing good faith, what chance is there of a federation working? A federation, no matter how well regulated it is, requires an abundance of good faith, a constructive attitude and a big appetite for compromise to work. The two leaders have never displayed these qualities, so why are we expecting them to do so in the event of a settlement?

Aussie


Joined: 17/06/2007
Posts: 657

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 20:05

But even in the highly unlikely event that they did, would they have the support of the people?



We should stop deluding ourselves. Such is the mistrust, resentment and bad faith on both sides that the possibility of reunification and power-sharing working is minimal. Perhaps now is the time to consider the possibility of formalising our long separation. It would have much more public support than any attempt at reunification. As Rauf Denktash always said, you cannot force two unwilling partners to marry against their will.



Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2008

Dixie Normus


Joined: 22/02/2008
Posts: 820

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 20:32

Good post Aussie,

what benifits would a reunited Cyprus have to the south, zero, this game the 2 leaders are playing will achieve nothing an aggrement is a million miles away and its the North with its back to the wall, and the south know this. Talat can shout and whinge all he wants but he has nothng to negotiate with, Turkey will bend to the EU giving the GCs an upper hand and an eventual walkover, as a forigner standby to be crapped on big style.



D.N

andre 514


Joined: 31/03/2008
Posts: 1163

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 21:02

hi craig,



I agree totally, the south would get little benefit from the north

unless they can grab a lot of land and property there



as regards the old chestnut about turkey being pressured

over the cyprus issue for the sake of eu membership,

my gut feeling is this is a total non-starter:

although it might seem "obvious", states do not usually respond

to deals like this, partly because it may not be "real" anyway

and partly because it would display great weakness



in this context, a finnish eu commissioner

tried last month to get turkey to sign a piece of paper

very much along these lines, but the botched attempt

was roundly and immediately dismissed



russia has been a long-term "supporter" of the gc case

but to put it very crudely...

the only people who would actually risk body bags

coming home over the division of cyprus are the islanders

and turkey, and possibly too but now unlikely, greece



well done aussie again for picking up the original report



andre

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 21:10

Aussie,

Excellent post,explains the situation as it really is,

Paul.

PtePike



Joined: 20/05/2008
Posts: 2334

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 21:21

Dixie,



Surely if foreigners have done the right thing they have nothing to fear from Turkey largely pulling out of Cyprus?

teddybear9026


Joined: 09/11/2008
Posts: 3

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 21:59

The biggest thing that the South would loose is the North and the right to claim how hard done to by Turkey they are. In my humble opinion if the island is not united then it has to split and eventually the world will agree to the split whether the South like it or not.

This has been going on long enough and the reason for change of leadership at the last election in the South was that the writing was on the wall and that a split was forthcoming if there was no change at the top.

What the South's biggest fear is that there will be another Kosovo on there own doorstep when the North declares independance and the rest of Europe backs it.

Coachie



Joined: 29/07/2008
Posts: 2135

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 22:48

the whole situation there is very similar to the Irish problem.Some wanted reunification with the south and when it came to the crunch the South didnt really wnt the north what with there unemployment figures and all that goes with that so in the end the IRA gave up the ghost and settled for what the have got ,political recognition.Do hyou here any body from the South shouting about reunification now ,no,because they are better off without the north.I am sure you must be able to see the similarities...

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 23:01

Still physically Cyprus, but with recognition

pilgrim



Joined: 11/05/2007
Posts: 1404

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 23:08

Still physically Cyprus, but with recognition and free from embargoes

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
30/11/2008 23:55

coachie

i speak to lots of people both north and south, lots of those people would like to see a united cyprus, along with myself.

WAZ-24-7



Joined: 18/10/2008
Posts: 695

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 00:08

I think that there are wider implications for settlement between North and South. Re-unification, divergence to two seperate republics are clear options.



Of course the international comunity would like to see a stable and long term settlement.

The European union specifically have the same aspiration but have much to gain from Union status for the whole island. Cyprus has strategic geographical importance in the western Mediteranean..within flight dstance of middle east and North Africa. The current instability lessens any advantage the Union currently percieves.



The European Union will continue to encourage a settlement and unification of N and S at least into Union membership. Turkey will morethan likely attain Union membership, again in part because of its proximity to |Middle East.



Current Leaderships of N and S are transient. Elections are due in the North next year. I do hope that both leaders will work harder and be objective in negotiations over settlement

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 07:26

I think we will all find out when all the unification votes are in...should it get as far as a referendum - and I hope it does.



Surely it's gone on long enough for everyone to see that they need to make a fresh start whilst not being foolish... A measure of trust.. the devil is in the measure...



Let's also hope, with the good offices of both sides, that neither side is faced with a poisoned chalice...

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 11:55

Good post Aussie



It may have been that the two leaders had good intentions at the start but it seems that the sides are just too far apart in their wants and desires. This is being reflected in the rhetoric of the two leaders.



I feel it has been a mistake for the two sides to go it alone in the negotiations. Any married couple who's relationship is badly damaged would seek out a marriage counsellor to support them in the healing process. The UN or better still the EU should be taking a more active role.



The two sides should be actively implementing trust buidling measures but they are not, other than the Ledra crossing.



I also believe that they should be more open about what is happening during the talks. Without frankness and openness people will speculate and due to the history this affair the speculation is likley to be negative.

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 13:02

Right I'm off to find a marriage counsellor...



Ssh! don't tell the wife....

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 16:30

let us know how you get on Grouco..

fire starter


Joined: 19/06/2008
Posts: 3401

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 18:59

groucho

do you think that any referendum would be fair and straight forward?

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 19:27

Why should it not be?



If it's overseen by the UN or another august body... I don't see that it should be any different from the last one... or do you think the last one was in some way bent?

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 22:40

Maybe it was better than the one you're going to get offered this time....

MUSIN M


Joined: 26/06/2008
Posts: 1352

Message Posted:
01/12/2008 23:03

suzanne

last time you got too much .



you missed that boat ,next one along is only half full





musin

long live the kktc