Cyprus solution in 2012?

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:04

See below.........

Foreign and European diplomatic circles believe that considerable progress in the Cyprus talks was achieved at Green Tree in New York, so much so that important developments will take place in January and possibly even a solution, says Makarios Droushiotis writing in Politis yesterday.

This fits in with the UN announcement as well as information from Turkish sources, but is completely at variance with public statements by President Christofias and Akel. The writer finds it a complete mystery why everyone connected with the Cyprus problem believes that something positive may happen while in Cyprus the picture being painted is bleak.

He says this information doesn’t just come from journalists’ sources, but also from top European leaders. A case in point is Disy leader Nicos Anastasiades who came back from a trip to Europe last week saying that both the British Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel..

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:07

......all of whom he met with, believe that progress has been achieved in the talks and expect even more progress to come. Brussels too is of the same opinion. At meetings House President Yiannakis Omirou had with Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, the latter outrightly rejected the view that the talks aren’t progressing due to Turkish intransigence. Barroso, says the paper, is actively involved in the Cyprus problem and is convinced a solution can be reached now. Barroso’s representative, Jorge Cesar das Neves, attended the talks at Green Tree. The fact that EU leaders are firmly convinced that the talks are going well and will go even better in January cannot be a misunderstanding or a delusion. Confusion, however, reigns supreme from the statements emanating from the Cyprus government. Two things are likely:

1. The talks did in fact go well and there are indeed prospects for a solution, but Christofias is keeping expectations low so that there will not be any preemptive rep

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:09

......preemptive reactions.

2. The two sides see things differently, and the UN and international community don’t share the Cypriot point of view.

The fact remains that the [South] Cyprus government’s credibility is in doubt. No one takes what they are saying at face value. For example, in early 2010 all information indicated that agreement had been reached on the issue of governance, yet Christofias denied it, only today to accuse the Turkish side of reneging on what they had previously agreed.

What is certain is that the time for playing games is over. In January Christofias must either admit there has been progress and agree to an international conference giving rise to reactions internally, or he must lead matters to failure and take responsibility for it, thereby proving the Turks right when they say that the Greek Cypriots have got it good being in the EU and aren’t interested in a solution.

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:11

....The rhetoric for talks without a timetable or arbitration has become ridiculous and is laughed at in diplomatic circles. Clearly, the talks have already entered their final phase following a very clear timetable and agenda. Last Wednesday Christofias and Eroglu agreed to a all the dates leading to Green Tree 2 which is due to take place around 20 January, as well as on a working programme covering all the chapters.



The Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Lisa Buttenheim, informed the two leaders that the UN will expand its role during the final round of talks. The leaders will be meeting only once a week when they will simply confirm what has been agreed during the previous to-ing and fro-ing and there will also be meetings of UN technocrats with each negotiating team. Naturally there will be some kind of mediation and solutions will be put forward, but without each side knowing the other side’s ultimate position....

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:12

.....Not allowing the UN to put forward proposals or to play a mediating role is tantamount to showing bad faith. Besides the whole process cannot be completed without the UN’s active involvement. The UN itself believes that the tools are there, the two sides’ positions understood, and all that is needed is political will. If they don’t reach an agreement now, they will never be able to do so, not in a year’s time, nor even in ten. What the UN is trying to do is to see whether a federal solution is ultimately feasible or not.

The UN S-G will outline his intentions in his forthcoming report on the renewal of UNFICYP. He expects that after Green Tree 2 this report will be positive. But if the process fails, he will explain why. Both sides are already urging Ban Ki-moon to point the finger at the other side....

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:13

....Their efforts not to take the blame does have the effect of somewhat pushing the process forward. But if they are doing so under the pressure of not wanting to take responsibility whereas in actual fact don’t really believe in the solution, then the solution will be a shotgun wedding and prospects of it succeeding are dim.

One thing that worries the international community is Turkey’s apparent lack of enthusiasm in a solution compared with before. The Turkish side is convinced that Christofias cannot solve the Cyprus problem. If he didn’t dare go for it when he was stronger internally and had Talat as his interlocutor, how is he going to be able to do so now that he is weak and has Eroglu on the other side? According to Turkish sources, this is why Erdogan changed his tune and hardened his rhetoric on Cyprus, while at the same time keeping tensions high over the natural gas exploration....

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 02:14

...Alexander Downer is expected to visit Ankara in the next few days to check out the Turkish government’s intentions and to seek their support for the climax of the talks. Turkey exerted all its influence to get the UN to ensure that January is the endgame and June the date for wrapping up the procedure if the UN S-G proceeds to an international conference.

Turkey has made it clear that if the talks fail it will change policy and turn towards upgrading the TRNC and its economy with development work and will give TRNC citizenship to Turks in order to control local politics better. According to Turkish Cypriot sources, even Eroglu is concerned about the population increase in the north because the Turkish Cypriots will be undermined. That’s why agreement was reached on the citizenship issue in New York whereby those who had already received TRNC citizenship would be covered by international law in a future settlement.

Hippo


Joined: 02/02/2007
Posts: 2070

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 04:56

I dont want to appear cynical but 'here we go again'

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 07:16

Excellent reading

Donaldson


Joined: 13/05/2011
Posts: 86

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 09:46

Masterful summary, Steve. But are we any closer to a solution (UN/EU rhetoric apart)? Remember that both sides will have to hold a referendum before reunification, and hearing the antipathy on both sides, I can't see it happening for at least another generation, by which time the situation will have moved on.

The RoC's assumption of the EU presidency next year will probably bring things to a head. The talks will stall and Turkey will move in, whatever the local reservations may be.

theparson


Joined: 28/05/2011
Posts: 129

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 13:00

Turkey and the TRNC have to be positive considering the timescales, and will recommend whatever solution is on the table knowing full well that the Church in the South will give it the thumbs down.

As I see it.

1. There will be an agreement early next year, backed by both Governments.

2. The North will vote yes, the South no.

3. After lots of toing and froing, the South will be asked to vote again (as per the EU norm)

4. Another no vote, and.............?

5. Not sure what happens next, any ideas?

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 13:30

We have until march 2012 to getting a yes vote on both sides, in the event of another no vote from the south, then the real problems will start for the people in the north.



As we will only have 2 options left.



1.Apply to the UN security council for a resolution to be a state, Which would require the require the approval from 3 out of the 5 permanent members (USA-RUSSIA-CHINA-UK & FRANCE).

or

2. at least 6 out of 10 temp member states must ask the UN security council for an open debate in the UN, calling for a vote.Unlikely as all 7 of the 10 member states are currently African or Asian and not able to support TRNC cash wise.

or the last option is that the TRNC calls on a referendum asking the people to support the Government in becoming the 82nd state of the Republic of Turkey.

brother



Joined: 29/01/2010
Posts: 446

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 13:55

Erkin, it really doesn't look good. Taking the options you pose in turn:



1. A resolution to be a state: approval from 3 out of the 5: USA,RUSSIA,CHINA,UK,FRANCE.

IMHO, the responses would be [France: NO, UK: no, USA: no] therefore making this academic.

or

2. at least 6 out of 10 temp member states ask the UN security council for an open debate in the UN.

Unlikely as you state.

or

3. TRNC calls on a referendum asking on becoming the 82nd state of the Republic of Turkey.

Subject to kissing goodbye to their rightful identity as Cypriots.

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 14:24

msg 13: yep that is the bottom line



as you say none of the 5 members will say yes, even the worst case of The UK goverment supporting the it, we do not have close ties with USA - RUSSIA or CHINA to gives us the backing.



The only way forward to is an agreement ot face loosing our identity, we are fully aware of these, thats why we have started a group to occupy the buffer zone,



If we do become the 82nd state, I think that the UN needs to start fixing the house in the buffer zone, so that Tc who do not want to live under Turkeys Rule can move into the house in the buffer zone, I am sure that, we so few of us left in the north, building couple of tower blocks in the buffer zone will fit all the Tc.

Tower block 1: Kyrenia

Tower Block 2:Famagusta

Tower Block3:Guzelyurt and so on

girne 29


Joined: 06/12/2007
Posts: 1488

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 15:34

Erkim

1. A resolution to be a state: approval from 3 out of the 5: USA,RUSSIA,CHINA,UK,FRANCE.





What planet do you live on?



To much else going on in the world ,Iran, Israel.Syria etc . for UN to get involved in who owns what property in Cyprus, and the property issue is 90% of the problem.

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 15:45

msg 15



what are you going on about, read the whole thread before you make syupid coments, if anything what planet are you on.



We are talking on what would happen if the talks break down by march deadline.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 17:09

what puzzles me is why so many on cyprus 44 cry out for a solution,

as if perfectly happy to buy a pig in a poke or if that allusion offends,let us say

that nobody has yet let the cat out of the bag



because since 2004 there has never been anything like a draft scheme on the table,

so that all could read into it their personal pluses and minuses



or do I misunderstand the terrabytes churned out on 44 since talks restarted in '08?



is it possible the south will accept the "permanent loss" of their northern province

...or that turkey's army will tamely return to their turkish barracks?



whether or not there is ever to be a single solution to the north-south divide

who has any idea what an agreement might entail ...and who might accept it?



in other "divided" lands eg ireland, germany, palestine, the koreas etc

although the parties do not always see eye-to-eye,

there has always been a framework for possible agreement



and not a rabbit pulled out of a hat

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 17:58

I made what I thought is a very relevant comment above,

yet no-one seems interested to think about just what any given "solution" ...may be in practice



it can only be concluded everyone is too posh to push out the boat, as it were:

"solution" is in my view a word almost meaningless, without relating it to a specific cyprus deal

slatnumber7


Joined: 25/08/2010
Posts: 299

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 18:32

So if reunification does not seem possible because of the influence of the G.O. Church on the electorate in the RoC how can one island two countries (both in the E.U.) be implemented?

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 18:45

message 19:



yes, re-unification is indeed a far more difficult kettle of fish

...than simply talking about "solutions" in an idealistic sense



what has been leaked since september 2008, gives little for

solutionists to chew on



yes there are "encouraging statements" from all and sundry:

and I hope householders will get the jump in property values

you would see with a true compromise agreement



...though little real evidence of it to date, so at the risk of

antagonising paul newlad again, the green line is fast

becoming a "de facto" border between cypruses like it or not

newlad



Joined: 02/03/2008
Posts: 7819

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 19:52

Hi Andre,



You have never antagonised me.My comments in post whatever,where totally tongue in cheek.I always enjoy reading your posts.And i cannot think of any that have got my back up,please keep posting,



Paul.

blade


Joined: 19/06/2010
Posts: 1286

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 20:49

Well i hope that if the TRNC does become part of Turkey it will give us, who came to live in Cyprus with Cypriots time to leave. And compensate us for our losses.

I have a TC friend who moved to Turkey and he tells me it has been increasingly hard to for Brits there to live full time and work ect.



No way am i ever going to be treated like a ethnic minority, like the Kurds.

slatnumber7


Joined: 25/08/2010
Posts: 299

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 20:57

Back to post 19 can someone answer my question please before this descends into a tangent debate.

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 21:03

Slat, it seems to work in Ireland ?

Turtle


Joined: 28/05/2007
Posts: 2669

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 21:08

You are priceless blade



What do you think Turkey are going to do,....... set up camp outside your place and bully and abuse you ?



Lets not forget YOU bought a property in NC and decided to live under the rules of the country and as for compensation the amount of venom that has left your mouth slagging off NC over the last few years I think it may be in order for you to compensate them not the other way around

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
22/11/2011 22:10

Msg 19.



A very good question indeed.

MoonageDaydre


Joined: 09/07/2011
Posts: 70

Message Posted:
23/11/2011 00:23

Blade makes a good point though, people from outside Cyprus came to the island because they love Cyprus and the Cypriot people, in the north the Turkish Cypriots in particular. Most expats could have settled mainland Turkey where property prices were cheaper, but they didn't did they?



And what about the Turkish Cypriots? Surely they didn't suffer so much and shed so much blood just to be colonised by mainland Turks rather than Greek Cypriots or Brits?



This has to be the last call for the bi-zonal bi-communal federation which offers the only real hope for a peaceful long term solutions.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
23/11/2011 02:03

I am not clear md message 27, whether the b.z.b.c. federation you remind us of

is what you think should happen, or if you think it may happen some day?



granted that could be a solution as you call it, if it succeeds better than the earlier

solutions but why is that the only "peaceful" option as you appear to suggest?



don't get me wrong I am not against any of this but neither am I particularly for it

Groucho



Joined: 26/04/2008
Posts: 7993

Message Posted:
23/11/2011 07:52

Are there any more mixed communities in the south in addition to Pyla, ones like those that exist in Büyükkonuk, Dipkarpas etc. in the north? I only ask because it has come to my attention that there are some fine examples of bi-communal living in the north and with the exception of Pyla (and I'm not sure of how bi-communal Pyla is, I can't think of any in the south.

philbailey


Joined: 17/01/2011
Posts: 3534

Message Posted:
23/11/2011 07:57

I believe more T/Cs reside in the south (like Erkin)

than the other way round

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
23/11/2011 09:08

According to the info from the Goverment there are a total of 1296 Tc living in the south. Most of these are people who refused to moved from their homes in the Limassol, Episkopi, Phaphos and Larnaca areas of 1974.



During the summer months there are over 2000 Tc working in the south mostly in the Hotel and Tourism.



Over 500 people cross from Leedra palas, ledra street and Metehan to go to work each day in Building, Goverment

departments and Schools.



Since the opening of the borders over 60,000 Tc people have obtained a dual natioanlity of RoC, giving them the rights of the E.U freedom of travel.