Niall Ferguson - Predictions for Europe 2021

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 15:48

Ferguson the Harvard Historian has written an article outlining his predictions looking back from 2021



*The EURO crisis of 2010-2011 claimed the scalps of no fewer than 10 governments including Spain, and France.



*Germany never liked Brussels as the capital of Europe, so Vienna becomes the head of the EU and reflects the central point of Europe. The Habsburg empire has been revived. Europe is now called the United states of Europe and has now grown bigger. The EURO survived and is still the European currency. People realised it was better to save the EURO.



*Scotland decides it is not a good idea to go for independence. The Republic of Ireland joins Britain and Britain breaks away from Europe. Britain forges strong ties which China and the rich Chinese makes Britain their home.



*Scandanavia also breaks from Europe and it becomes the Norse league which includes Iceland

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 15:49

Other predictions



In 2012 Israel attacks Irans nuclear sites. This severely dents the Arab spring. Iran retaliates through Hamas and Hezbollah.



America tries to stop Isreals attack but is ignored. America tries to keep the strait of Hornuz open to keep the trade system working, however the Iranians capture an American warship without a shot fired. Obama loses his presidency.



Turkey seized the moment to take the Iranian side, while at the same time repudiating Ataturks separation of the Turkish state of Islam.



Emboldened by election victory the Muslim brotherhood seized the reins of power in Egypt, rejecting its countries peace treaty with Israel.



Israel is now totally isolated and alone. The United States of Europe prevents Israel from resorting to using nuclear weapons.

elko2



Joined: 24/07/2007
Posts: 4400

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 16:07

The only predictable thing about Middle East is its unpredictability. Personally I expect Israel to use her atomic bombs come what may when she finds her back against the wall. Call it suicide bombing.

ismet

walkerscott


Joined: 13/08/2009
Posts: 901

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 16:08

interesting ..

i think viruses, both airborne and internet, lack of fresh water, the exorbitant cost of basic foods and utilities, the collapse of globalisation, and governments' strategic behaviour focussed on procuring scarce natural resources will play itself out by 2020!

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 16:48

msge 3



elko2



You could be right about Israel. What do you think about his prediction for Turkey.



"Turkey seized the moment to take the Iranian side, while at the same time repudiating Ataturks separation of the Turkish state and Islam."

Visitor


Joined: 19/08/2010
Posts: 492

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 16:49

Sarkozy wins the election in France.



France and Germany form a new European state with Austria and the benelux states and Finland



Ed Milliband resigns and is replaced by Yvette Cooper



Cyprus is reunified in late 2012



China becomes the Worlds No 1 economy.



US goes bust and is bought by China

ilovecyprus


Joined: 08/05/2007
Posts: 2880

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 17:04

4



'the exorbitant cost of basic foods and utilities"



Just finished reading 'the third revolution' by Jermey Rifkind.



He says that the world has not yet realised that our present financial crisis is not due to a lack of credit, but is due to the demise of our current industrial system which is built on oil and fossil fuels. He says that the increased demand for oil , fuelled by China and India caused oil to hit 147 dollars a barrel. When this happened the cost of living became too high and forced the economy to slow down. All our current attempts to restart the economy will fail, because we will hit 150 dollars a barrel which will stop the economy from growing enough to take countries out of debt.



We will be forced to move to renewable energies. Every house will produce energy and the excess energy will be moved from those who have, to those who haven't through the internet. Once this engineering feat is complete their will be millions, if not billions out of work.

Clarissa2


Joined: 12/06/2009
Posts: 1476

Message Posted:
27/11/2011 17:19

Re: Msg 1,



"*Germany never liked Brussels as the capital of Europe, so Vienna becomes the head of the EU and reflects the central point of Europe. The Habsburg empire has been revived. Europe is now called the United states of Europe and has now grown bigger. The EURO survived and is still the European currency. People realised it was better to save the EURO. "



Whoopee! I'll move to Vienna then - my favourite city! And perhaps will start learning Hungarian.



Re: Msg 5,"What do you think about his prediction for Turkey.

"Turkey seized the moment to take the Iranian side, while at the same time repudiating Ataturks separation of the Turkish state and Islam."



Turkey has been doing it already, so not much of a prediction here.