So when UN stalemate is declared on July 1st

Millwall123


Joined: 02/08/2011
Posts: 61

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 16:11

do you think the green line crossing points will be closed whilst all parties decide their next step?

yrret


Joined: 17/08/2010
Posts: 761

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 16:27

If they do it's an admission by all involved that Cyprus is not 'one island' and the prevention of free movement for people within their own territories.



Not very likely to have UN/EU backing.

Millwall123


Joined: 02/08/2011
Posts: 61

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 16:31

I understand your point.............but the UN will presumably declare they are done and will ship out and the EU have no real influence. If the UN do leave there is no-one to man the crossing points.



In time we may see 2 states and therefore a proper border...........but i was wondering if there are any interim plans beyond just shutting the crossing points.

karakum5c



Joined: 18/03/2008
Posts: 1021

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 16:39

in the present economic climate neither side can afford to have the border closed, both are more and more reliant on the revenue it brings as the months and years go by

Millwall123


Joined: 02/08/2011
Posts: 61

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 16:58

You're missing the point I'm trying to focus on. If the UN say there is nothing more they can do they will leave.



Regardless of what the TC or the GC want there will be no-one to facilitate green line crossings..............therefore do you think all crossings will close whilst all parties consider what to do next?



I think anyone looking to visit the north after 1st July will have to come in via Ercan.

fiendishpaul


Joined: 18/05/2008
Posts: 1720

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 17:55

Whilst the UN facilitate the green line crossings, they are policed by both the RoC and TC Customs (and SBA where applicable). I don't see any reason why this could not continue as an interim measure without the UN.

Millwall123


Joined: 02/08/2011
Posts: 61

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 18:00

I couldn't disagree more. Without the UN in the middle the GC and the Turkish soldiers would start shooting at each other.

AlsancakJack



Joined: 14/08/2008
Posts: 5762

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 18:11

Millwall123

So what would the UN do if there was a conflict between the South and the North? What did the UN do to stop a GC being shot after he decided to cross the buffer zone and climb a flag pole to try and remove a TC flag? In fact tell me what the UN has done to stop any conflict around the world. They are there as observers only.

suehowlittle


Joined: 31/10/2010
Posts: 1202

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 18:18

An expensive toothless monster - after watching their historic shameful observing events over a long period of time (Rwanda and Kossovo) I have come to the conclusion that a chocolate fireguard is more useful.



Of course, this is only my humble opinion

dublinderm


Joined: 26/09/2009
Posts: 538

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 18:28

Hi,



As the RoC Govt pay virtually all of the costs of UNFICYP and UNCIVPOL it is highly unlikely that either or both will be removed. In such an event, the OSCE would probably step in with a simple Observer Mission.

UNFICYP is NOT an Observer mission it is a fully fledged armed peacekeeping mission, although most people using the crossings are unlikely to see much in the way of arms on display.

I would consider the UN presence in Cyprus to be part of the problem. If they were not there then the military on both sides would have to start dealing with each other directly. I think they would come to some form of accommodation quickly.

Jack - Look up the UN mission ONUC in Congo to see what the UN did to stop a conflict. As the outcome was not to the liking of the US & UK the UN was never given a similar mandate again.

There is money to be made out of conflict so why bother with a solution?



DD

Visitor


Joined: 19/08/2010
Posts: 492

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 18:31

As with previous deadlines they will extend to whenever.........and it goes on

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 19:37

Just a point that all should consider, if all fails, the UN has only one option left open to them, not a question of leaving or staying, will the UN agree to the formal existance of TRNC or will Turkey dissolve the present goverment and take over TRNC as the 82nd state.



The leader of CHP in Ankara has already accused the AK party of this and called for a vote in Turkish Parliment for the Goverment to declare their intentions on TRNC if no agreement is reached by 30th June.



Even if they call a referendum in TRNC, we are outnumbered nearly 3-1 by mainlanders who will support Ankara in their aim to make us 82nd state.

Tax heaven for the mainlanders. neither Ankara nor TRNC Government has so far made any kind of statements as to why the TRNC name should be changed for or why they see the need for a new constitution, so it looks like Turkey has already started putting plan B and C into action.

canada


Joined: 17/05/2011
Posts: 195

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 19:49

the south keeps the gas /oil

the north gets turkey

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 19:55

The south can keep its gas, they will need it to bail themselfs out like Greece, if the EU allows them to keep it all that is

Visitor


Joined: 19/08/2010
Posts: 492

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 20:03

I cannot see the UN ever recognising the TRNC. Such a move would be vetoed in the same way the Palestinians would be. France and Russia as well as the US would not support it.



82nd region - that will kill any hopes of EU membership. Remember despite all they are hanging on to that one.

They may also get some sanctions if they took that move!



I think what is inevitable is the first Turkish mainlander head of state.



Much depends on what TCYs do?

gusanova


Joined: 23/11/2010
Posts: 187

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 20:39

Dublinderm,



Very interested in your comment- the ROC pays for the UN, where do you get that. The UN is funded by the United nations who is funded by all countries that are members. Some pay more.



So by your advice the country who has the UN pays for them, not true !!

Erkin


Joined: 15/06/2011
Posts: 339

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 21:11

msg 15: You honestly belive that Turkey will kill efforts on E.U? Turkey has no intentions of joining E.U and E.U has no intentions of taking Turkey.

If Turkey was that interested in keeping in with E.U they would have turned their backs on Tc long time ago. Turkey will not compromise TRNC for E.U



They UN will not have any options left if the Talks fail, The US and Russia are not prepared to destroy relations with Turkey fo the sake of the GC. There is too much at stake for both countries. As for China they have a strong bond and relations with Turkey, so that only leaves the France, The UK and Germany



As for RoC paying the UN paying the cost in Cyprus msg 16 is correct, largest amount paid into the UN is by the 6 perminent member states. The annual cost of retaining the UN in Cyprus is 56,000,000 Dollars, this figuire was quoted in the Downer Report last month to the UN in his report on Cyprus.

newscoop


Joined: 23/12/2007
Posts: 2197

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 21:15

gusanova;



The ROC pays more than a third of the costs of unficyp. The Greeks pay a smaller percentage.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 21:52

once again I'm bemused at the status millwall and some others assign to this fail/succeed chimera

...really, the talks are not anywhere close to that type of decision, while there is a heap of evidence

the sides have drifted even further apart these last few years



neither can I see turkey making an honest woman of cyprus and absorbing it as an official province

since there is nothing material to be gained and a huge international row would ensue



as I understand it, if the un ended its supervisory role there is every chance of a misunderstanding

on the green line turning into something pretty serious

Visitor


Joined: 19/08/2010
Posts: 492

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 22:50

The UN not recognising the TRNC will not affect relations with Turkey. The status quo will continue. A new non EU initiative will be started.



No country apart from Turkey has recognised TRNC not even Azerbaijan. Will that change?



Where the problems would occur is if Turkey decides to annex North Cyprus -



My view is it would cause problems. Remember GCYs are small but they are part of a large Club and I think the EU would react.



Also I am not sure that TCYs would accept that fate of becoming a region of Turkey.

dublinderm


Joined: 26/09/2009
Posts: 538

Message Posted:
11/01/2012 23:06

Re Msg 16 & 18.



Newscoop has it correct. It is almost unique in UN missions, but the RoC do pay for a substantial amount of the costs of UNFICYP (not the wholeUN!). They get most of their money back by way of trading with the forces for food, fuel, rents, etc. It is just good business.



I was Force Database Manager (WO2) 1997-1998 and I witnessed some of the correspondence between UNFICYP and UNHQ on the subject. It is also frequently mentioned in the Cyprus Mail (to their irritation).



Once I also handled a cheque for $129,000,000 in Dublin that the UN had payed over (late) for the Lebanon (UNIFIL). Peacekeeping is good business for the Irish also.



DD

gusanova


Joined: 23/11/2010
Posts: 187

Message Posted:
12/01/2012 09:06

Thank you for enlightening me.



In Somalia its similiar with AU(UN) the companies build the sites etc and then the Un pays them rent. So similiar I suppose with the UN in Cyprus the landowners are doing very well. So they will be happy to keep UN here.

bigOz


Joined: 29/09/2010
Posts: 1244

Message Posted:
12/01/2012 12:10

UN never managed to stop anyone from firing at each other either here or anywhrere else!

UN has been a good source of revenue for the South and are nothing more than uniformed tourists!

UN in Cyprus is a waste of money and serves no purpose

There will never be a war between the two sides because UN left

UN plays no role in the border crossings it is TC and GC police. You do not even see UN soldiers along the roads at the crossing points.

UN must go home ASAP. That may in fact encourage a quicker solution

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
12/01/2012 13:26

to those trying to tie un or eu future policy to the "outcome" of the talks:

this is all well and good but it is to grossly overestimate their real significance



yes, all the great and good in the world and tony blair have stated time and again

their strong committment to a united cyprus, but previous attempts to get an outside

agency to help sort out a settlement in both 1960 and 2004 failed miserably,

so the world body made their role as facilitator-only crystal clear this time around



the gc regime dreads an international conference as well as a devolution-max

arrangement, since either would kill forever their lingering hopes for majority rule on

the island



as for our side, there is no way any territory would be offered, except for a good and

immediate independence package



in response to big oz, surely the un does provide a peacekeeper role, and would act

if anybody goes OTT on the green line



and in the long run...economists say we are all dead

bigOz


Joined: 29/09/2010
Posts: 1244

Message Posted:
13/01/2012 01:01

andre514; We witnessed it between 1964-1966, and again in 1974! The same was also proved in Bosnia when Serbs slaughtered many civilians.The UN has no power to intervene when one side is attacked by the other i.e. they cannot open fire to stop a conflict unless directly attacked. They can huff and puff and warn the other party about consequences, report back to UN HQ etc. but the stronger side will always push on ignoring them

For Cypriots, there can be no going OTT along Green line - it would be an all out war or nothing. Sometimes in the past, people have got shot along the green line, right under the UN watch towers! But that was before all the softening up and opening of crossing points. The UN cannot "keep" peace, the people living on both sides can do that because they wish to do so. During a demonstration, they could not even stop a GC on foot crossing over the Green line, climbing a flag pole and trying to bring down a Turkish flag - proved to be a fatal mistake of course.

andre514


Joined: 05/10/2010
Posts: 763

Message Posted:
13/01/2012 01:41

bigoz:



I am in two minds about the un,

while they failed to prevent massacres in bosnia and rwanda, obviously

they are working to keep adversaries from having a go at each other

in some other places



as regards cyprus without any monitoring you can have a very annoyed

turkish army going for the gc's if provoked, a quite believable scenario



...though the un could neither prevent the 1974 fascist coup nor the

intervention that resulted from it



however there are countries in the region that have always made it clear they

will take military action to defend themselves, neutralize insurgents or in persuit

of their supreme national interests, as required



it has to be said that the goodwill and committment to peaceful resolutions of

any international body is only effective with the co-operation of major players



but broadly, the un as an institution seems more even-handed towards north cyprus

than the eurocentric eu

bigOz


Joined: 29/09/2010
Posts: 1244

Message Posted:
13/01/2012 14:41

andre154;

There is no doubt about the goodwill of the UN and they had helped the TCs in other ways especially during 1964 - what I am saying is, they just do not have the power or the authority to act as a military body to stop anyone attacking the other (it does not mean they cannot but their hands are tied).